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If reflected when voters go to the polls on Nov. 5, it would put Trump back in the Oval Office, well past the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.
What’s comforting to Harris is that many polls tell conflicting stories, and when you look at the details, that particular outcome probably won’t happen.
In fact, simulations using polling, economic and demographic data Five thirty eight As of Thursday lunchtime, Harris had won the election 55 times out of 100. and A Wall Street Journal survey Harris painted a brighter picture Friday by showing slight leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia — enough to give him a narrow Electoral College victory on polling day.
Still, the margins are confusing for Democratic strategists, with the vice president’s campaign recently disclosing that it raised $1 billion in the 80 days since Harris replaced Joe Biden as the party’s nominee in July. That’s more than Trump’s campaign raised.
As of late August, Trump’s campaign had raised a relatively modest $309 million, though it has the advantage of financial support from entrepreneur Elon Musk’s superpack. Provides cash incentives People in swing states need to register Trump-friendly voters.
Whatever the cash advantage, Harris appears to have lost some momentum since the Sept. 10 debate against Trump in Philadelphia in the “blue wall” Rust Belt battlegrounds of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where he generally came out on top.
That was illustrated by a Quinnipiac University poll last Wednesday that shifted to a three-point advantage for Trump from 50% to 47% following the debate, a week after he posted a five-point lead in Michigan; In Wisconsin, a one-point post-debate advantage turned into a 2% lead for Trump. In Pennsylvania, Harris’ six-point lead was cut in half to 3%.
One issue casting a shadow over Harris’ prospects is the escalating conflict in the Middle East, where Israel’s offensive against the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah threatens to further erode support among Michigan’s already angry large ethnic Arab electorate. White House Support for Israeli War Against Hamas in Gaza
A Quinnipiac poll shows Trump with significant leads in both Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump is confident of victory, even though polls suggest he has little chance of winning in Democratic strongholds like California, Illinois and New York. The move seems calculated to convey an air of impending victory.
With 24 days until polling day, Democratic strategists fear that Harris is running out of time to fix his polling woes. The schedule has been further shortened by the twin hurricanes Helen and Milton that have battered the US Southeast in the past two weeks, distracting Harris from the campaign trail and providing an opportunity to spread lies and lies about Trump. She and Biden reportedly failed to attempt a rescue.
“I am very worried and very scared” James CarvilleBill Clinton, recognized as the mastermind of the successful 1992 campaign and author of its signature slogan — “It’s the economy, stupid” — told MSNBC last week.
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Warning of limited time for Harris to deliver a more aggressive message to voters, Carville continued: “Today is gone. You’re going to lose four to the Hurricanes…everything closes on the Saturday before the election. So you could actually be within 20 days and you should actually get a message.
Calling for a targeted attack on Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on imports – which economists warn could fuel inflation – he added: “They have to be sharp. They have to be aggressive. They have to stop answering questions and start asking questions.”
But amid the gathering darkness, there are glimmers of light for Harris. Survey after survey shows that on the issues most important to voters — the economy, inflation and rising costs, and immigration — majorities of voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Just as Harris has been unable to translate his financial holdings into clear polls, Trump is exhibiting a similar failure despite being marginal on some headline issues.
The reason, the Wall Street Journal suggested, may be that his foreboding on economic issues is more nuanced than it appears at first glance. For example, Harris has a 6% advantage on bread-and-butter questions, indicating that he “cares about people like you.” Likewise, while a majority said Trump has the right experience to be president, 48% said he was “too extreme,” compared to 34% who said the same about Harris.
Harris may have lost the election by knockout, but his opponent — for all his bombast and resilience — has vulnerabilities and weaknesses that make him win on attainable points.
