Israel’s last war with Hezbollah in 2006 was considered a failure within much of the Israeli security establishment.
Its air force had a thin list of targets. Israeli ground soldiers fight during the fighting in the rugged terrain of southern Lebanon. The war failed to achieve its stated goals of returning two captured Israeli soldiers and removing Hezbollah from the border region.
“There was a certain level of shock from the results of the war,” said Garmit Valensi, an Israeli expert on Hezbollah who served in the military’s intelligence directorate.
Almost 20 years later, Israel launched another offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Attacks that have killed Hezbollah’s leaders, crippled its communications networks and targeted weapons depots — this time, a string of hits — are a direct result of Israel’s investments in preparing for a future war with Hezbollah since its founding operation in 2006, Israeli security experts said.
But as Israeli forces move deeper into Lebanon by land, they will be exposed to greater dangers, including the sophisticated weapons used by Hezbollah. If the Israeli government fails to develop a clear exit strategy, as it has struggled to do in Gaza, the military could end up in a protracted war that stretches its resources to the limit.
The blow to Hezbollah helped restore Israel’s reputation as a powerful force in the Middle East, but it also underscored how it was prepared for a war with Hezbollah on its northern border rather than an incursion by Hamas. October 7 attacks in the south.
“Hezbollah is 10 times more powerful than Hamas,” said retired Major General Yaakov Amitor, who served as Israel’s national security adviser from 2011 to 2013. referring to the Israeli army.
Hezbollah, having built an arsenal estimated at more than 100,000 rockets and missiles and trained tens of thousands of fighters, was also well prepared for the last war with Israel. Its leaders have carefully studied Israel, calculating that Hezbollah can carry out back-and-forth attacks with Israel in support of Hamas without starting an all-out war.
The current Israeli offensive against Hezbollah shows that it was a huge miscalculation. Israel intensified its attacks in mid-September, launching weeks of bombings against Hezbollah, targeting its fighters and blowing up their walkie-talkies and pagers. Explosive devices killed or seriously injured both militants and civilians.
Days later, Israel killed several top Hezbollah commanders, including Ibrahim Akeel, the head of the Ratwan Brigades — elite fighters that Israeli officials concluded were plotting to invade northern Israel.
On September 27, Israel struck an underground compound and killed Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who had turned the group into a powerful political and military force. On Thursday, Israeli officials said they had tried to kill Hashem Safideen, his potential successor, but as of Sunday, it was unclear whether they had succeeded.
At the same time, a wide-ranging bombing campaign by the Israeli military hit Hezbollah’s weapons infrastructure and killed its fighters, undermining the group’s ability to respond with force. According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health, Israeli airstrikes killed hundreds of people, including women and children. Its figures do not distinguish between combatants and civilians.
At the very least Four hospitals Lebanon’s state-run news agency reported that all of southern Lebanon was without service after Israel’s bombardment. St. Therese Medical Center, south of the capital Beirut, also temporarily suspended services, saying Israeli strikes nearby had caused “major damage”.
A major aspect of Israel’s intelligence superiority over Hezbollah is its increased use of drones over Lebanon, General Amitar said.
His investigation into the activities of the military’s intelligence directorate before and after the 2006 war revealed that Israeli drones in Lebanon were diverted to Gaza, leaving the area with a small number of drones. The investigation was conducted at the behest of Israel’s army chief.
“I saw very few drones flown in the north,” he said. “I kept asking myself: Wait, what’s going on here?”
In the intervening 18 years, the number of drones in Lebanon has grown exponentially, he said.
Israel has said it has stepped up attacks against Hezbollah in recent weeks to help some 60,000 displaced residents return to their homes in northern Israel.
Eyal Hulata, who served as Israel’s national security adviser from 2021 to 2023, said Israeli forces are focused on gathering intelligence on Hezbollah leaders and their movements, as well as its communications systems and secret facilities.
While Hezbollah has long been aware that Israel is conducting espionage on its members, the Israeli military’s repeated attacks on the group’s leaders suggest it does not realize how deeply its ranks have been infiltrated.
A senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank, Mr. “We’re now seeing how this information gave us an advantage,” Hulata said.
Israel’s intelligence operation against Hezbollah has often been able to gather information from secret meetings without Hezbollah’s knowledge, according to three Israeli security officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the news media.
However, celebrations of its recent successes in Israel may be premature. Israeli forces’ ground invasion of Lebanon, just days old, has already paid a price. On Wednesday, Hezbollah fighters killed nine Israeli soldiers in the first clashes between the sides since the invasion began. Two more soldiers were killed on Friday in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, the army said.
“A ground invasion would be very difficult,” said General Amitrar. “We are talking about an organization that is more dangerous, prepared and armed than Hamas. It’s in another league.
According to a CIA factbook, Hezbollah is estimated to have 20,000 active fighters and 25,000 reservists in 2021. Many of the fighters also have operational experience, having fought alongside the Syrian government during that country’s civil war. Mr. Nasrallah once claimed that Hezbollah had 100,000 armed members.
According to senior Israeli and US officials, although Hezbollah has lost half its arsenal in airstrikes, it still has access to guided anti-tank missiles, another challenge for Israeli soldiers.
What’s more, most Israeli security experts said it was unclear whether Israel had a clear exit strategy from Lebanon, raising fears that the Israeli military could be locked into a war.
The experts also said the Israeli government must translate the military’s tactical achievements into a political victory by striving for a diplomatic agreement that would return security to Israel’s north. Without such an agreement, it is unclear when the roughly 60,000 displaced residents will be able to return to their homes, they said.
Former National Security Adviser Mr. “Currently, the political establishment is not doing enough work on how to end this problem,” Hulada said. “I fear that without a clear strategy to reach a political solution, our victories may be undone.”
Ronen Bergman Tel Aviv, and Nathan Odenheimer From Safed, Israel.
